The Orioles (73-78) play the middle game of a three-game set against the New York Mets (69-81) on Tuesday night at Citi Field, one night after a 2-1 win that kept a fading postseason bid technically alive. Baltimore has 11 games left and needs almost all of them.
Monday's opener belonged to the pitching staff. Brandon Young worked five innings and gave up one run on five hits, though he needed a career-high 106 pitches to get there and issued five walks. Heston Kjerstad doubled home Jackson Holliday in the second for the game's first run, and A.J. Ewing answered with a solo homer off Young in the fourth. It stayed 1-1 until the eighth, when Gunnar Henderson took Dedniel Núñez deep with two outs for his 23rd home run of the season. Josh Walker, Grant Wolfram, Yennier Cano and Rico Garcia combined for four scoreless innings behind Young, with Cano picking up the win and Garcia the save.
The loss formally eliminated the Mets from postseason contention and guaranteed a losing season for a club that opened the year with a record $358.4 million payroll.
What Baltimore Actually Needs
Entering Tuesday, Cleveland holds the American League's final wild-card spot at 76-75. Toronto (75-76) is a game back of the Guardians, Texas (74-76) is 1.5 back, and the Orioles are 3 back with 11 to play. Baltimore's problem isn't one team — it's three.
The arithmetic is unforgiving. Baltimore's ceiling is 84-78. Cleveland gets to 84 wins by going 8-3 the rest of the way, which means the Orioles have to win out and the Guardians have to finish 7-4 or worse just for Baltimore to finish a game ahead. An 8-3 Cleveland close creates a tie that would be settled by tiebreaker.
| Orioles finish | Final record | Cleveland must finish |
|---|---|---|
| 11-0 | 84-78 | 7-4 or worse |
| 10-1 | 83-79 | 6-5 or worse |
| 9-2 | 82-80 | 5-6 or worse |
| 8-3 | 81-81 | 4-7 or worse |
And clearing Cleveland isn't sufficient on its own. At 84-78, Baltimore would also need Toronto to finish 8-3 or worse and Texas — which has 12 games left — to finish 9-3 or worse. Three separate collapses, stacked on top of a Baltimore run the team hasn't produced at any point this season.
The elimination number is 15: any combination of Cleveland wins and Orioles losses adding to 15 ends it. With only 11 games on Baltimore's schedule, that math can resolve inside of a week. Realistically, anything short of 10-1 makes the rest academic.
It wasn't always this far away. Baltimore held the third wild-card spot outright as recently as Aug. 17, sitting at 61-63 after three straight wins over Tampa Bay — a reminder of how little separation there is in this race, and of how much the Orioles have given back since. They reached .500 at 69-69 on Aug. 31 and haven't been there since. Full standings and updated odds are on our Orioles standings and playoff odds page.
Alonso, Lindor and the Race to 300
The series' other storyline resumes Tuesday. Pete Alonso returned to Citi Field on Monday to a nearly two-minute tribute video and a standing ovation from the fans he spent seven seasons playing for, then went 0-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout.
He remains stuck on 299 career home runs — and so does Francisco Lindor, his former teammate, now in the other dugout. Both are one swing from 300 in the same ballpark, in the same series, a coincidence Alonso said he'd enjoy seeing resolved on the same night.
"It'd be really cool if both of us could do it in the same game," Alonso said Monday. "And if that happens, I think that'd be the first time ever. And hopefully we win the game."
Alonso, who has started every Baltimore game this season, is hitting .269 with 35 home runs and an AL-leading 100 RBI. His next homer makes him the 20th player in Orioles history to reach 300 for his career.
Roster Notes
Catcher Samuel Basallo is playing through inflammation in his right shoulder, and manager Craig Albernaz has been picking his spots with him rather than shutting him down. "He's fighting to stay on the field," Albernaz said. "But also, the best version of Sammy is going to help us win." Basallo is hitting .133 in the second half after missing a month with the injury.
Right-hander Kyle Bradish went on the 15-day injured list Sunday with lower abdominal discomfort and is being evaluated in Baltimore, leaving Friday's start to Cade Povich or Trey Gibson. Félix Bautista and Ryan Helsley are both on rehab assignments at Triple-A Norfolk.
Pitching Matchup
Shane Baz (6-15, 4.05 ERA) has the most misleading record on the staff. The right-hander has thrown 169 innings with a 1.33 WHIP, numbers that belong to a mid-rotation starter rather than a pitcher 9 games under .500, and he's spent the season on the wrong end of the same run-support problem that has followed Baltimore's rotation all year. He's been at his best when he can work ahead and lean on the fastball; the trouble comes when he falls behind and has to throw strikes to a lineup that's sitting on one.
Sean Manaea (5-7, 4.79 ERA) gives the Mets a left-handed look across 133 1/3 innings with a 1.34 WHIP. The veteran's deceptive low arm slot is his separator — it makes life difficult on left-handed bats and lets him get away with a fastball that doesn't overpower — but the ERA reflects a season in which the deception hasn't consistently held. Baltimore's right-handed-heavy middle of the order, Alonso included, is the matchup he'd rather not see, and Henderson and Kjerstad both swing from the left side against a pitcher whose margin against lefties is his best asset.
With nothing left to play for, the Mets have every reason to give innings to arms they want to evaluate. The Orioles don't have that luxury.
Probable Starters
New York Mets: LHP Sean Manaea (5-7, 4.79 ERA)
Baltimore Orioles: RHP Shane Baz (6-15, 4.05 ERA)
Where to Watch/Listen
First pitch: 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field
Weather: Clear, 74°F at first pitch
TV: MASN
Radio: 98 Rock (97.9 FM) and WBAL NewsRadio (AM 1090 / FM 101.5)